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ICBC Trading Strategies of Precious Metals and Commodities Market - July 30, 2018
 

I. Precious Metals
Gold

Gold edged up 0.1 percent to $1,223.46 an ounce, having hit a one-week low of $1,216.93, and was on track for its third consecutive weekly decline, of about 0.5 percent.

The dollar slipped against a basket of currencies on Friday as data showing the U.S. economy rang up its strongest quarter in nearly four years failed to erase worries that trade frictions would be a drag in the second half of 2018. Soybean exports have been a bright spot in the U.S. Economy.

As reported by the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. gross domestic product grew at a 4.1 percent pace in the second quarter, matching a Reuters poll of economists. The PCE price index increased 1.8 percent, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent in economists’ forecast. Excluding food and energy prices, the core PCE price index increased 2.0 percent, compared with economists’ forecast of 2.2 percent. The preliminary sales rose 5.1 percent, beating market consensus of an increase of 3.7 percent. Consumer spending rebounded to a 4 percent annual growth rate. GDP deflator index added 3.2 percent, better than the forecast of a 2.3 percent growth.

After the report, U.S. stocks slipped, while benchmark 10-year notes bounced off a 1-1/2-month high. On chart, gold will continue to fall, and could find support at $1,205-$1,215 and resistance at $1,235.

Silver

Silver rose 0.5 percent at $15.45 per ounce, but was heading for its seventh weekly decline. It earlier hit a one-week low at $15.29 an ounce.

On chart, silver, under heavy resistance, keeps falling along the 10-day moving average. Investors shall closely watch the support at the closing lows of July 19 at $15.26. The next support can be found at $15.

II. Commodities
Crude Oil

Oil prices fell on Friday, weighed down by a drop in the U.S. equities market, but Brent still marked a weekly increase, supported by easing trade tensions and a temporary shutdown by Saudi Arabia of a key crude oil shipping lane.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 92 cents to settle at $68.69 a barrel, and marked a fourth week of declines, falling about 2.4 percent. Brent crude futures fell 25 cents to settle at $74.29 a barrel, but notched a 1.8 percent weekly increase, its first increase in four weeks.

U.S. energy companies added three oil rigs in the week to July 27, the first time in the past three weeks that drillers have added rigs, General Electric Co's Baker Hughes energy services firm said on Friday.

Copper

Copper was set for its first weekly rise in seven weeks after a deal between the European Union and the United States reduced fears that new trade barriers would erode demand for metals. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange closed up 0.1 percent at $6,297 a tonne and was 2.4 percent higher this week.

Copper slumped from $7,348 a tonne in June to a one-year low of $5,988 last week on concerns that a trade war would damage economies. On chart, copper steadied, but showed no signs of rebound. Currently stuck around the 20-day moving average, the resistance at $6,200 could be the key for future movement.

Soybean

U.S. soybean futures rose 1.1 percent on Friday, and was 2.4 percent higher this week, bolstered by signs of strong export demand. Soybean exports have been a bright spot in the U.S. economy. Commerce Department data released on Friday showed that the U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in nearly four years in the second quarter.

Chicago Board of Trade soybeans for November delivery settled up 9-1/4 cents at $8.85-1/4 a bushel. August soymeal closed up $0.1 to $332.7 a tonne. August soyoil firmed 0.41 cents to 28.56 cents.

 

Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch
                        Lv Yan


(2018-07-30)
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